Can You Spot a Flop Before the Stats Show It?
Rate 150 of the Premier League's biggest transfers to help build a first-of-its-kind AI model — powered by real football knowledge, not just numbers.
About this Project
🧠 What is this Project?
This is an academic research project designed to explore whether AI can predict if a football transfer will be a success or a flop — starting with the Premier League.
To train the model, I'm collecting expert fan input from people like you, who understand the game beyond basic stats. Your responses will help shape an algorithm that could one day support scouts, analysts, and fans alike.
🎓 Academic & Research Goals
This study is part of my master's programme at the University of Southern California, with a target completion date of May 2025. The model and research will remain strictly non-commercial and academically focused — your data is used exclusively for this purpose.
Our long-term ambition is to build the most human-informed AI model for transfer analysis, and later expand the tool across the top five European leagues.
⚽️ What You'll Be Doing
You'll be rating the 50 most expensive transfers from each of the 2021/22, 2022/23, and 2023/24 Premier League seasons - so 150 transfers in total. The goal? Decide — purely from your football knowledge — whether a player's transfer was a Success or a Flop.
Each rating takes just a few seconds, and you'll see:
- Player face & name
- Transfer fee
- Clubs involved
- Season of transfer
That's it. No stats. Just your expertise.
⏱️ Estimated time: 15 minutes
🔄 Two Rounds — Here's Why
You'll take part in two rounds:
- Now (Round 1): You rate 150 players based on minimal data — just like gut reactions you'd make reading transfer news.
- Later (Round 2): After I build the AI model, you'll be invited back. This time, you'll see what the model predicts and a bit more performance data. You'll then agree or disagree with the model — helping further improve the algorithm.
This dual process is crucial: it teaches the model not just what fans think, but how and when they think differently from machines.
🌍 Why Help?
- Be part of one of the first AI models built to predict football transfer success.
- Gain early insight into how AI could revolutionise football recruitment.
- Your vote isn't just a data point — it's a benchmark for machine learning.
- And of course, you'll receive a personal update and summary of the model's predictions in Summer 2025.
👋 Hi, I'm Max
I'm originally from London, now a grad student at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. As a lifelong fan of the beautiful game and an embarrassingly obsessive checker of calciomercato news, I've always been fascinated by the unpredictability of big-name signings — who shines, who flops, and why.
Through this project, I'm exploring whether we can train AI to predict the success or failure of football transfers — not with endless stats, but with a mix of data and human intuition.
This research is part of my academic work, and you can help shape it. Finally use that expert knowledge you've been honing for years!
Get Started
Please provide your information to begin rating transfers: